course number | instructor | title |
CS 6824 | A Vullikanti | Computational Epidemiology |
The recent Ebola outbreak in west Africa and the ongoing Zika outbreak in South America are reminders of the age-old societal concerns of controlling the spread of infectious dis- eases. Examples of fundamental questions studied by epidemiologists and public officials during these, and other epidemic outbreaks, include: (1) Where did the disease originate? (2) How does it spread, and how does it compare with earlier outbreaks? (3) Where has it spread so far? (4) How can the disease spread be controlled?
Mathematical models are key to understanding the spread of epidemics and studying such questions. There have been signi cant advances in the recent years on developing national and international scale epidemic models for Inuenza, Dengue, Zika and other diseases. We will focus on complex spatial and network based epidemic models which are used for studying disease spread at such scales. As researchers attempt to capture more realistic characteristics of disease dynamics into such models, they are becoming increasingly complex to analyze, calibrate, simulate and understand. Scalable computational and statistical methods are necessary for analyzing such models, and using them for real world problems.
This course will cover recent research in computational epidemiology, which is at the interface of different areas of computer science, applied mathematics and statistics. The objective of the course is to introduce students to this multi-disciplinary area, and help them identify some of the key research directions. This is largely a seminar and project based course and students will be expected to participate in class discussion, present one or more papers, and work on a final project. Problems and datasets related recent outbreaks will be used in some of the course topics and projects, which include:
Mathematical modeling in epidemiology: this will cover a broad class of models, ranging from simple coupled differential equation models to network based models. Our focus will be on analyzing dynamical properties of such models, and the impact of network structure on the dynamics.
Computing epidemic properties and simulations: as epidemic models increase in complexity, their simulations and computing their properties are becoming challenging computational problems. This topic will focus on some of the key computational advances that have enabled the analysis of very large models.
Calibration and inference problems for epidemic models: there is usually limited amount of good quality data on outbreaks, and often sources such as social media are used as indirect source to get signals about outbreaks. Calibration of complex models, and state inference are challenging problems, and we will discuss some of the recent research on these topics.
Control and resource optimization in public health: this will include problems from public health policy planning, such as detection and control of epidemic spread. We will discuss combinatorial formulations for different kinds of multi-criteria optimization problems, as well as game-theoretical approaches that capture individual incentives. We will also discuss briey the issues of designing implementable policies, and the effect of individual behavior on the efficacy of interventions.
Forecasting problems in epidemiology: This involves forecasting the time course of an epidemic, and has attracted a lot of interest in recent years. There are forecasting challenges run by di erent agencies. This problem is complicated by the fact that behaviors, disease dynamics, and social networks co-evolve. We will discuss some recent results on this topic, including the results from forecasting challenges.
Background and Prerequisites. The course is highly multi-disciplinary, and all the topics will span multiple areas. Students should have background in at least one of the following areas: data analytics, algorithms, parallel computation, mathematical modeling, statistics and optimization. Students are encouraged to work in teams with complementary expertise, allowing them to explore new areas.